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This week’s story of a San Diego man and his runaway Prius marks the turning point on when Toyota’s unintended acceleration issues crossed over into hysteria. While observers cast doubt on the truthfulness of the high-profile incident, more drivers have reported cases of Prius sudden acceleration. With each new report, there is a growing counter-movement that points to human psychology—rather than technical malfunctions—as an explanation.

On Tuesday, a New York woman said her 2005 “shot” forward into a stone wall. A day later, a Minnesota doctor and his wife complained that their 2007 Prius suddenly took off—in reverse. On Wednesday, a 76-year-old Connecticut woman reported that her 2007 Toyota (model unidentified) took off across the lawn of her church and crashed into the church steps. “It’s a miracle,” said Father Rev. James Bogiatzis, when he surveyed the damage and yet nobody was hurt.

Satan Behind the Wheel?

Toyota originally blamed floor mats for stuck acceleration pedals. Although some Prius owners doubted the explanation, the company issued a voluntary recall to correct for "floor mat entrapment."

How do you explain the sudden spike in incidents? Lars Perner, professor of clinical marketing at the University of Southern California, told Associated Press, “When people expect problems, they're more likely to find them.”

The Wall Street Journal reported that increases in complaints to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) by car owners are common after automakers announce plans for recalls. In just the first 10 weeks of this year, 272 complaints have been filed nationwide for speed control problems with the Prius, according to an Associated Press analysis of unverified complaints received by the NHTSA. Only 74 complaints were filed last year, and eight in 2008. There’s been a similar jump in reports of problems with Prius brakes: 1,816 this year, versus 90 in 2009 and fewer than 20 every other year of the last decade.

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Sales trends for hybrid cars rise and fall with the Toyota Prius. Toyota usually sells as many units of the quintessential hybrid as all other gas-electric cars combined. But February was far from a usual month. Multiple safety recalls throughout February, including one issued on the 2010 Prius, threw the company into full damage control and put doubts into the hearts of car shoppers. As a result, Prius sales in February fell 6.1 percent compared to the previous month. Discounts on three-year Prius leases probably prevented even further losses.

Hybrid shoppers took a wait-and-see approach in February, as Toyota dealt with safety recalls.

As severe as these problems were, they were not as bad as the global economic meltdown from a year ago. In fact, Prius sales in February are up 10.2 percent compared to one year ago. Overall hybrid sales matched the Prius sales trends: Year-to-date sales for the first two months of 2010 are up 7.2 percent for the Prius and 7.1 percent for all hybrids.

Largely as a result of Toyota’s woes, February 2010 is one of the rare months where the rate of hybrid sales lagged behind overall vehicle sales, which jumped by 11.1 percent compared to the 3.7 percent decline in hybrid sales. February's percent market share—at 2.12 percent—is the lowest for hybrids since 1.97 percent in December 2008. Last year, hybrids nearly reached 3 percent of the new car market and are forecast to climb by approximately a single point of market share every year for the coming few years. It remains to be seen how long Toyota is embroiled in safety recalls and how that will affect hybrid sales.

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James Sikes at a press conference about the alleged runaway acceleration incident.

James Sikes, a 61-year-old San Diego-based real estate executive, made national news this week when he claimed that his 2008 Toyota Prius sped out of control on California’s Interstate 8. Sikes said, “I pushed the gas pedal to pass a car and it did something kind of funny…it jumped and it just stuck there." Speaking at a news conference yesterday, Sikes said, "I was trying the brakes...it wasn't stopping, it wasn't doing anything and it just kept speeding up." The story was picked up by major national media and ricocheted around the Internet.

According to Sikes, he was unable to shift into neutral, power down the car, or apply the parking brake—but but he did manage to call 911. Whle Sikes was on the call, which lasted 23 minutes, a California Highway Patrolman raced to the side of the speeding car. The patrolman used a loudspeaker to advise Sikes to apply the parking brake and foot brake simultaneously, and thereby successfully bring the car to a stop. There are conflicting reports about whether or not Sikes tried to put the Prius into neutral during the early part of the incident.

Runaway News Reports

A local television news report misreported that the patrolman used “his own police cruiser as a brake.” CNN reported that the main “claimed that he almost flew over a hill at more than 90 miles per hour in his Prius.”

There were other mistakes in national media coverage, including the report that the Sikes incident caused Toyota to issue a new recall for 2004 – 2009 Toyota Priuses. Those vehicles were included in a late 2009 voluntary safety recall—related to accelerator pedals that could be trapped by floor mats. There have been reports that some Toyota vehicles that received service in a separate recall are still experiencing problems, but second-generation Priuses, such as Sikes’s, have not yet been called into dealerships. Nonetheless, Sikes claims that he was turned away from a Toyota dealership when he tried to get the Prius serviced as part of a recall.

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Lexus CT 200h

Toyota officials last week confirmed that the Lexus CT 200h, a premium hybrid hatchback, is coming to the United States, according to a report in Automotive News. The Lexus CT 200h would be Lexus’s first compact car, and the first compact hybrid sold by Toyota in the US.

The car was unveiled at the Geneva Motor Show last week, but until recently the company insisted that the compact hybrid would only be sold in Europe. According to Automotive News, Lexus executives pleaded with Japan to bring to the car to the US—partly in hopes that the smaller Lexus would appeal to a younger demographic. "When the all-new Lexus CT 200h enters the market it will be the only hybrid vehicle in the emerging premium compact segment," said Mark Templin, Lexus Division group vice president and general manager.

The Lexus CT 200h will make its US debut at the 2010 New York Auto Show later this month. Production begins in late 2010. The car could go on sale in the US sometime in 2011.

Small Luxury Compact Hybrid Hatchback

The recipe for the CT 200h is to place a Prius-type hybrid system—featuring a 1.8-liter gas engine with variable valve timing, and energy storage with a nickel-metal hydride battery pack—into small relatively affordable premium compact car. Lexus said the CT 200h will ride on a new front-wheel-drive platform with a MacPherson strut front suspension and double wishbones at the rear.

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Plug-in Hybrid and Electric Car Incentives

• Federal Tax Credits for PHEVs and EVs
• Federal Tax Credits for Hybrids and Clean Diesels
• Region by Region Incentives for All Electric-Drive Vehicles

In a few weeks, Ford will become the third auto company to see federal incentives for its hybrid gas-electric cars completely vanish. Tax credits for Honda hybrids bit the dust at the beginning of last year, and Toyota hybrid credits completely phased out in late 2007.

The clean vehicle incentives instated in 2005 provided tax credits, as much as $3,400, for 60,000 buyers per each automaker before a phase-out period of 16 months. Ford reached the 60,000 hybrid mark before April 1, 2009—so beginning on April 1, 2010, there are zero tax credits for a Ford Fusion Hybrid or Ford Escape Hybrid. Tax credits remain for hybrids and clean diesel vehicles from General Motors, Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW—but with the exception of the VW Jetta TDI, these are low volume vehicles.

Mission Accomplished or Not?

With hybrids remaining below 3 percent of the new car market, green car analysts and advocates are wondering if the hybrid tax credits have vanished too soon. After a decade in the market, hybrids have become more commonplace and therefore, with tax credits and other incentives, could reach a much larger part of the mainstream market. Incentives could encourage automakers and consumers to put millions of high-mpg low-emission hybrids on the road—the original goal of the tax credits.

Instead, legislators have jumped to the next technology breakthrough: tax credits for plug-in hybrids and electric cars. A combination of local and national credits—up to $7,500 at the federal level, plus a $2,000 credit for charging equipment installation, plus state-based incentives— represent so far the largest bundle of incentives for private purchasers of green electric-drive vehicles.

Yet, these grid-enabled vehicles are not yet available—and when they arrive in later 2010, they will be expensive (even with tax credits) and available in limited supply. This is a good argument for generous tax credits to jumpstart the market. However, the first wave of buyers of plug-in cars will be highly motivated early adopters—a group likely to buy regardless with or without large tax credits. Meanwhile, there won’t be an incentive for some mainstream buyers who need a slight nudge to go hybrid.

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In October 2009, Nissan announced that it will produce a hybrid gas-electric version of its Infiniti M luxury performance sedan, to go on sale in Europe in 2011. It will likely be sold in the United States as well, although no date has been set for North American distribution. The Infiniti M35 Hybrid represents the brand's first hybrid—and provides one more example of the curious relationship between luxury and hybrid vehicles.

Nissan unveiled the Infiniti M35 Hybrid at the 2010 Geneva Motor Show in early March.

Nissan’s leadership has repeatedly made the argument that hybrids are not the answer to the environmental challenges facing the automobile industry—and that only pure all-electric cars represent the necessary shift to oil- and emissions-free motoring. The company’s small all-electric Nissan Leaf will debut in late 2010.

However, the use of a gas and electric power combo is apparently Nissan’s solution for luxury buyers unwilling to sacrifice horsepower and high-end features, but no longer wanting to guzzle gas. As Infiniti’s press release states, “The M35 Hybrid has been designed and engineered to add to, not take away from, the driving experience, a key part of any Infiniti's appeal.” [Subtext: Most hybrids take away from the driving experience.]

Technology Innovation

The M35 Hybrid’s engine, borrowed from the conventional M sedan, is a 3.5-liter V6, with the addition of a 68 horsepower electric motor and hybrid drive system. The Infiniti M35 hybrid uses a front-engine rear-wheel-drive approach—with a one motor-two clutch system. The first clutch is installed between the engine and the electric motor. This clutch allows the full decoupling of the V6 when running in electric modes—in order to reduce mechanical drag and boost the efficiency of the electric motor.

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Both vehicles are still concepts, but Audi executives are promising to deliver on electric-drive vehicles.

Audi A1 Plug-in Hybrid Concept

Earlier this week at the 2010 Geneva Motor Show, Volkswagen promised to lift hybrids out of its niche status and to produce electric cars. Audi, Volkswagen’s luxury brand, echoed the sentiment, making a commitment to full hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric cars.

Rupert Stadler, Audi AG's chairman of the board of management, said, “We shall offer electric power in the best possible forms for a wide range of mobility needs. The hybrid driveline will be followed by all-electric vehicles." Michael Dick, Audi board member for technical development, added, “In due course plug-in hybrids will demonstrate their strong points when drivers expect to cover longer distances in the pure electric mode, in combination with a conventional engine."

Audi plans to use the name “e-tron” for electric-drive vehicles, much the way the company uses “Quattro” as a synonym for all-wheel drive. In Geneva, Audi gave shape to its new commitment to hybrids and plug-in cars by unveiling two concepts: a full hybrid version of its Audi A8 large flagship sedan, and the A1 e-tron, a plug-in hybrid subcompact.

First Up: Audi Q5 Hybrid SUV

Unfortunately, Audi provided no details about the company's first and only hybrid slated for production so far: the Q5 hybrid crossover SUV. It's due in the US in early 2011. The Q5 hybrid, like the BMW X6 Hybrid, will try to compete with the Lexus RX 450h, which in recent months has become the best-selling hybrid SUV on the market. Sorry, no news on price or other specs are available for the Q5 hybrid.

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The all-electric Coda sedan will have a range of about 100 miles—on a full charge of about 6 hours. It will sell for around $40,000.

The Coda all-electric sedan, due late this year, is the underdog in the race for an affordable mass-market pure electric car. As a start-up, it doesn’t have the financial and marketing resources that Nissan and General Motors are putting behind the Leaf and Volt. Unlike Tesla and Fisker, Coda hasn’t received big government loans. So, Coda is playing the role of a small, smart and scrappy start-up electric car company, using every means possible to bring a practical petroleum-free car to the United States

“The auto industry is a global industry...It is less a matter of geography and more a matter of what firm has control over process and quality.”

Kevin Czinger
CEO, Coda Automotive

Fans of electric vehicles, and supporters of good old-fashioned American entrepreneurialism, might celebrate Coda’s rugged and independent approach—but that’s being undermined by questions about the manufacturing origins of the Coda sedan. Critics say the car is manufactured in China, so it’s a Chinese car. Full stop. Forget for a moment that nearly every manufactured good we use today comes from China. An analysis of the nationality of the Coda is complex—considering the global nature of the automotive industry.

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Overall Toyota sales fell 8.7 percent in February, but Prius sales increased by more than 10 percent compared to February 2009. The ability for Prius sales to resist the avalanche of negative publicity—related to Toyota safety problem, including the recall of 2010 Priuses for brake issues—continues the long-standing trend of hybrid sales defying larger market forces, including the economic recession.

Toyota has been offering low lease rates for Prius, as well as Avalon, Camry, Corolla, Highlander, Matrix, RAV4, Tundra and Venza. Despite incentives, Corolla sales fell 6.1 percent in February.

March numbers for Prius sales could continue to rise. After disclosing February sales today, Toyota announced it will continue to offer deals. Dealers are also offering free premium maintenance programs.

Special pricing—which apply to vehicles under recall including Prius, Camry and Corolla— are "unprecedented in the history of Toyota," said Toyota brand manager Bob Carter.

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2010 Volkswagen Jetta. By 2012, VW will offer a hybrid version. Hybrid Jetta Planned for 2012

After years of arguing that clean diesel is a better efficiency strategy compared to hybrids, Volkswagen is switching gears. In a statement issued on the eve of the 2010 Geneva Motor Show, Martin Winterkorn, VW chairman of the board, said, "We will take the hybrid out of its niche status with our high-volume models. In the future, the heart of the brand will also beat with electricity."

VW's Electric-Drive Roll Out

• A hybrid version of the Jetta will be offered in the US in 2012
• In August 2013, the Passat Hybrid will be introduced, followed by a Golf Hybrid two months later
• Starting in 2013, VW will begin rolling out pure electric cars, starting with the e-up! minicar, followed by an all-electric Golf, and other electric vehicles yet to be named
• VW's luxury brand Audi will also launch hybrids, beginning with an Audi Q5 Hybrid in early 2011, and a limited introduction of the electric e-tron in 2012

The Volkswagen press release states: “Starting in 2013, the high-volume Golf and Jetta models of the Volkswagen brand are expected to dominate the hybrid and electric vehicle market.”

The Eight-Year Goal

While Winterkorn’s announcements might impress future consumers interested in fuel efficiency, the VW Touareg Hybrid—its first hybrid offering, due in fall 2010—is likely to disappoint. Last month, Volkswagen unveiled a lighter leaner Touareg design, including a hybrid variant, ahead of the Geneva show. The Touareg indicates a move in the right direction, replacing the previous V8 gas-powered SUV with a lighter-weight version using a gas-electric six-cylinder powertrain with direct injection. The performance, size and towing capacity are impressive, but the expected fuel economy in the mid-20-mpg range, will fall in the middle of the Hybrid SUV pack.

"The goal is to become the market leader in E-mobility by the year 2018," said Martin Winterkorn. His goal is to make electric vehicle’s three percent of VW sales by 2018—a target which is surpassed only by Nissan which claims that electric cars will be 10 percent of the global auto market share by 2020.

The year 2018 is also when VW hopes to overtake Toyota to become the largest automaker in the world.

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GM's Bob Lutz sits in the Cadillac Converj. Lutz said, “The Cadillac Converj is cleared for production,” at this year's Detroit auto show. But according to reports, the vehicle has been canceled.

Bloomberg is reporting that General Motors stopped work on the Cadillac Converj, a sleek electric-drive coupe, to focus on cheaper plug-in hybrids for its luxury brand. The report is based on comments from two GM executives who asked not to be identified because the details aren’t public.

The decision, if verified by GM, represents an acknowledgement of the high cost of producing plug-in hybrids that run for long distances without using any gasoline—rather than the type of plug-in hybrids that can use smaller and therefore less expensive battery packs. The Cadillac Converj was intended to follow the design of the Chevy Volt—referred to as an extended-range electric vehicle or plug-in series hybrid—which runs up to 40 miles before the gas engine is used to maintain the vehicle’s range.

“The future lies in plug-in hybrids with smaller electric range,” Eric Noble, president of CarLab, an Orange, California-based automotive consultant, told Bloomberg. Dropping the Converj is “a tacit admission from GM that they over-batteried the Volt.”

Right-Sizing Plug-in Hybrid Batteries

The three major categories of electric-drive vehicles are conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and pure electric cars. Conventional hybrids, like the Toyota Prius, will continue to use relatively small battery packs—while pure electric cars require much larger batteries in order to deliver approximately 100 miles of range between charges.

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Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, responds to reporters.

New proposals in the Senate and House to prevent the Environmental Protection Agency from regulating emissions of greenhouse gases have little chance of stopping higher fuel efficiency standards from going into effect.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, last week introduced a bill to block EPA's power under the Clean Air Act to limit emissions from motor vehicles and other sources. Two key House Democrats followed with a similar bill.

Murkowsk's efforts to block EPA from regulating greenhouse gas emissions started last fall. She first introduced an amendment in September 2009, saying the regulations would result in an “economic train wreck.” At that time, Murkowski said the block on EPA’s powers would only affect stationary emissions sources—like power plants, refineries and manufacturers—and that regulation of automobile emissions could continue. The Senate declined to take up Murkowski’s proposal.

The new proposals put vehicle emissions back into consideration. Yet, these plans have little hope because efforts to block the EPA would face a tough battle from a Democratic-led Congress and would face a veto from President Obama.

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General Motors is ready to shut down Hummer. That was the big news earlier this week after the company’s deal to sell the Hummer brand to Tengzhong, a Chinese machinery company, collapsed. The passing of Hummer gave opinion writers, pundits and bloggers—and the general public—an opportunity to reflect on the vehicle that perhaps best represents the excesses of the SUV era.

From the beginning, Hummer was a lightning rod, eliciting strong emotions from people who loved and hated the quintessential gas-guzzler. We collected final remembrances of the Hummer from across the web, and hope you will add your reflections and condolences.

GM Gives In To Good Taste, Closes Hummer Division

"Auto decal makers and window-tinters of the world are in mourning this afternoon...They're stopping production of the controversial phallic stand-ins…I propose that, at midnight ET tonight, all Hummer owners across the country pause their Girls Gone Wild DVDs and join me in a moment of silence for the fallen giant."
- From The Consumerist

Hummer, R.I.P.

"In response to GM's announcement, flags across oil-rich Saudi Arabia were lowered to half-mast while the entire Exxon/Mobil board of directors were seen at a group grief counseling session. On Wall Street, oil speculators were jumping from windows while in Michigan, some people were mourning the possibility of a world without Hummers."
- From Detroit Free Press

Hummer's Long Overdue Death

"Driving one of those militaristic behemoths used to be a status symbol, but after gas prices topped $4 a gallon in the summer of 2008, people began to rethink the excess. In 2008, GM sold 27,485 Hummers, down from 35,000 in 2003. In 2009, after announcing it was putting the brand up for sale, GM sold only 9,000."
- From Forbes

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Licking Heights Local School District received $54,418 to retrofit 31 school buses under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The retrofits will reduce diesel exhaust inhaled by children, who are most susceptible to air pollution that can cause asthma and bronchitis among other ailments. Click here to read the full article “Licking Heights receives $54K for school [...]

Five schools in the Akron, Ohio area will get federal stimulus money to retrofit diesel-powered school buses. Together, the districts will install anti-pollution equipment on 67 buses. In total, the Ohio EPA awarded $1.87 million to 31 schools to clean up 528 school buses. Click here to read the full article “Area schools get money [...]

The head of the Environmental Protection Agency, Lisa P. Jackson, announced more than $16 million in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funding will go to reducing diesel emissions in Washington State. The individual grants will go towards retrofitting engines with diesel oxidation catalysts, among other projects to clean the air. Click here to read the full article [...]