High-profile media reports of runaway cars give the impression that the Toyota Prius is unsafe and undependable. However, the hard data tells a different story. J.D. Power—the auto industry’s top source for information about vehicle dependability—yesterday reported that among compact cars, the Toyota Prius had the fewest numbers of problems experienced per 100 vehicles over the past three years.

This marks the third year in a row that Prius took the top spot in the study.

The study, which measures problems experienced by original owners of three-year-old (2007 model year) vehicles, includes 198 different problem symptoms across all areas of the vehicle. The 2010 Vehicle Dependability Study is based on responses from more than 52,000 original owners of 2007 model-year vehicles. The study was fielded between October and December 2009—prior the most publicized reports of Prius unintended acceleration.

The negative impact of recalls on perceptions of dependability apparently did not affect the Toyota Prius in J.D. Power’s 2010 study. Complaints to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) by car owners commonly increase after automakers announce plans for recalls. Lars Perner, professor of clinical marketing at the University of Southern California, told Associated Press, “When people expect problems, they're more likely to find them.”

Human Error?

It remains to be seen how the negative publicity will influence next year’s study. But there’s mounting evidence that the most publicized Prius accidents involving unintended acceleration were caused by human error—not bad brakes or acceleration pedals. "Information retrieved from the vehicle's onboard computer systems indicated there was no application of the brakes and the throttle was fully open," NHTSA said Thursday in a statement about a Harrison, N.Y., crash. NHTSA officials said the findings mean the accident was caused by the driver, most likely because she pressed the accelerator instead of the brake.

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In about two years, the Honda Civic Hybrid could start using lithium ion batteries. Despite views to the contrary, the move to lithium from nickel batteries could reduce the price premium for Honda hybrids.

While the high cost of next generation lithium ion batteries is viewed as an obstacle to adoption of pure electric cars, lithium might be the key to making conventional hybrids more affordable. Bloomberg reported today that Honda—which has focused its hybrid marketing strategy on making hybrids nearly as affordable as gas-powered cars—is swiftly moving to put lithium batteries in the Civic Hybrid and its other hybrids.

Honda hopes that shifting its hybrid battery technology to lithium ion—which packs more power in a smaller space—will help the company gain an advantage over Toyota. In addition to moving to lithium batteries, Honda is planning to increase hybrid production in small and large cars and to introduce Acura luxury hybrids.

Toyota’s recent safety troubles have created an opportunity for other producers of hybrid cars. Honda hybrid sales have been lagging in recent years. Yet, February 2010 sales of the Honda Insight and Civic Hybrid increased by 54 percent and 37 percent respectively, compared to the previous month. Sales of the Toyota Prius dropped by 6 percent in February—although the model still dominates the US and Japanese hybrid markets. Koichi Kondo, Honda executive vice president, told Bloomberg that Honda could put lithium ion batteries in the Civic Hybrid “within the next two to three years.”

By contrast, Toyota believes that lithium batteries do not justify the higher cost, and that current hybrid battery technology—nickel metal hydride—is best suited for conventional hybrids. The company came to that conclusion last fall after conducting three years of “secret tests” on 126 Toyota Priuses equipped with lithium ion batteries.

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There’s no doubt that Henrik Fisker is a master auto designer. His previous creations include the BMW Z8, Aston Martin DB9 and the Aston Martin V8 Vantage.

Like a sculptor who refuses to unveil his masterwork until his creation is complete, Henrik Fisker has kept his gorgeous $87,900 four-door plug-in hybrid under wraps. Yes, Fisker Automotive has shown off numerous variations of the Fisker Karma at major auto shows in the past few years. But a vehicle is not a stationary object d’art. It must be driven to be understood and appreciated, and so far, Fisker is not letting anybody outside the company take a ride. (His Royal Highness, Crown Prince of Denmark—who spent some time behind the wheel—doesn’t count.)

Perhaps a better metaphor for Fisker is the film auteur, as in Francis Ford Copolla of the Apocalypse Now era. The Fisker Karma was originally promised for delivery in late 2009, which slipped to mid-2010, and now looks like late 2010. Like Copolla lost on location in the jungles, perfecting his opus and running over budget, Fisker is running up expenses and taking on more debt (another $115 million in venture funding in January)—while raising still more money for a factory/studio to produce an entire line of green dream machines.

According to Reuters report earlier this month, Fisker says the company will be fully funded by the end of 2010, and that by 2011, it will be cash flow positive and producing 15,000 Karma sedans a year from its contract plant in Finland. With another half-billion dollars pledged as a loan from the US government (plus other venture backing), the company is promising by 2014 to produce 100,000 vehicles a year—including a more affordable plug-in hybrid and the second-generation Karma—from a refurbished Delaware plant previous owned by General Motors.

"Mr. De Mille, I'm Ready for My Close-up"

There’s a reason that investors keep investing and green car fans patiently keep waiting. The Fisker script is compelling. A rebel auto designer bucks the system, and bests other courageous start-ups (see: Tesla Roadster) by producing a beautiful, practical and ultra-green sports car. The four-seat 400-horsepower Fisker Karma is powered by two electric motors and a turbocharged 2.0-liter 260-horsepower four-cylinder engine. The battery pack holds enough energy storage for 50 miles of all-electric driving. Running low on juice? No problem. Use gas for another 250 miles (or at least until you can go for a quick fill-up at a regular old gas station).

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One of about 150 rapid chargers currently in use in Japan.

After dominating the world market for hybrid gas-electric vehicles, Japan's automakers are now aiming to set the global standards for electric car charging.

A coalition of companies, including Nissan and Toyota, announced yesterday the creation of a organization called CHAdeMO that is working to develop the standards. “What we need to do is make this protocol a standard outside Japan,” said Tsunehisa Katsumata, chairman of Tokyo Electric Power Co., the main utility backing the venture.

The coalition has 158 partner companies. Non-Japanese companies interested in the effort include PG&E, Robert Bosch, Enel SpA, Endesa, PSA Peugeot Citroen, and Korea Electric Power.

US companies have been working to establish standards for the American market. In January, the Society of Automotive Engineers adopted SAE J1772 as the standard plug, which will be used by the Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf and other upcoming plug-in cars. The first adopters of these vehicles will predominantly charge their vehicles at home using 220-volt Level II charging, rather than rapid chargers. Agreement on the J1772 took years of debate and discussion.

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Tales of runaway Prius acceleration make for good late night comedy sketches, like this week's ad spoof from Saturday Night Live. But the truth is that the chances of Prius drivers experiencing unintended acceleration are extremely rare.

1Myth: Toyota vehicles, like the Prius, put drivers at a high risk.

Fact: Carnegie Mellon University Professor Paul Fischbeck, a risk expert, calculated the risk of driving a recalled Toyota and found that the accelerator problem increases the driving risk by 2 percent—which is already very low. In other words, the chance of dying in a year because of the accelerator problem is about two in a million. This is the same as flipping 19 coins one time each and getting 19 heads. Fischbeck says that you are almost 20 times more likely to die while walking than driving a recalled Toyota.

National Public Radio reported that you are 30 times more likely to get hit by lightning than you are to die in a crash involving a Toyota with a sticky gas pedal.

So, the chances of driving a runaway Prius are extremely unlikely. But still, it's a problem, potentially a fatal one, and drivers need to know what to do if it happens. The remaining myths and facts come from Paddocktalk.com, a website dedicated to racing news.

2Myth: In the event you encounter a runaway vehicle, the first thing you should do is to turn off the ignition.

Fact: No, the first thing a driver should do is to put the transmission in Neutral. A driver can place the Prius in Neutral by moving the shift lever to the “N” position—to the left side of the shift gate, and hold it there for a second. This stops the torque to the wheels, and gives the driver instant speed control over the vehicle, and allows the driver time to assess what is happening. Shifting into Neutral at full throttle will not damage the engine.

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Step aside Al Gore and Leonardo DiCaprio. James Sikes might just become the hybrid movement’s most recognized celebrity.

For the past several weeks, media and government officials have stirred widespread public concern about the safety of the Toyota Prius—publishing first and investigating later (if at all). But the truthfulness of the most publicized incident so far—what might be described as cross between the Balloon Boy Hoax and the OJ Simpson Highway Chase—is coming under increasing scrutiny.

Based on research by Jalopnik, the auto blog—which was picked up by Fox News, USA Today, and other outlets—Sikes’s background is checkered with problems: a police record for grand theft, a filing for bankruptcy, and ownership of a swingers website where users can post erotic photos.

Of course, Sikes’s questionable background doesn’t prove that the Prius and other Toyota vehicles are free of technical safety issues—any more than a series of reported problems is proof positive of major safety glitches. In fact, investigators may never come to a definitive conclusion about reported Prius acceleration cases.

Nonetheless, revelations that the Sikes incident might have been hoax could slow down media and government from knee-jerk reactions. In that sense, Sikes could be credited as the man who convinced the public to question if Prius safety questions are more hype than reality. Hybrid cars have long been a lightning rod for strong feelings for pro-hybrid eco-types and the anti-hybrid crowd who see Prius drivers as smug, wimpy or simply misdirected.

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This week’s story of a San Diego man and his runaway Prius marks the turning point on when Toyota’s unintended acceleration issues crossed over into hysteria. While observers cast doubt on the truthfulness of the high-profile incident, more drivers have reported cases of Prius sudden acceleration. With each new report, there is a growing counter-movement that points to human psychology—rather than technical malfunctions—as an explanation.

On Tuesday, a New York woman said her 2005 “shot” forward into a stone wall. A day later, a Minnesota doctor and his wife complained that their 2007 Prius suddenly took off—in reverse. On Wednesday, a 76-year-old Connecticut woman reported that her 2007 Toyota (model unidentified) took off across the lawn of her church and crashed into the church steps. “It’s a miracle,” said Father Rev. James Bogiatzis, when he surveyed the damage and yet nobody was hurt.

Satan Behind the Wheel?

Toyota originally blamed floor mats for stuck acceleration pedals. Although some Prius owners doubted the explanation, the company issued a voluntary recall to correct for "floor mat entrapment."

How do you explain the sudden spike in incidents? Lars Perner, professor of clinical marketing at the University of Southern California, told Associated Press, “When people expect problems, they're more likely to find them.”

The Wall Street Journal reported that increases in complaints to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) by car owners are common after automakers announce plans for recalls. In just the first 10 weeks of this year, 272 complaints have been filed nationwide for speed control problems with the Prius, according to an Associated Press analysis of unverified complaints received by the NHTSA. Only 74 complaints were filed last year, and eight in 2008. There’s been a similar jump in reports of problems with Prius brakes: 1,816 this year, versus 90 in 2009 and fewer than 20 every other year of the last decade.

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Sales trends for hybrid cars rise and fall with the Toyota Prius. Toyota usually sells as many units of the quintessential hybrid as all other gas-electric cars combined. But February was far from a usual month. Multiple safety recalls throughout February, including one issued on the 2010 Prius, threw the company into full damage control and put doubts into the hearts of car shoppers. As a result, Prius sales in February fell 6.1 percent compared to the previous month. Discounts on three-year Prius leases probably prevented even further losses.

Hybrid shoppers took a wait-and-see approach in February, as Toyota dealt with safety recalls.

As severe as these problems were, they were not as bad as the global economic meltdown from a year ago. In fact, Prius sales in February are up 10.2 percent compared to one year ago. Overall hybrid sales matched the Prius sales trends: Year-to-date sales for the first two months of 2010 are up 7.2 percent for the Prius and 7.1 percent for all hybrids.

Largely as a result of Toyota’s woes, February 2010 is one of the rare months where the rate of hybrid sales lagged behind overall vehicle sales, which jumped by 11.1 percent compared to the 3.7 percent decline in hybrid sales. February's percent market share—at 2.12 percent—is the lowest for hybrids since 1.97 percent in December 2008. Last year, hybrids nearly reached 3 percent of the new car market and are forecast to climb by approximately a single point of market share every year for the coming few years. It remains to be seen how long Toyota is embroiled in safety recalls and how that will affect hybrid sales.

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James Sikes at a press conference about the alleged runaway acceleration incident.

James Sikes, a 61-year-old San Diego-based real estate executive, made national news this week when he claimed that his 2008 Toyota Prius sped out of control on California’s Interstate 8. Sikes said, “I pushed the gas pedal to pass a car and it did something kind of funny…it jumped and it just stuck there." Speaking at a news conference yesterday, Sikes said, "I was trying the brakes...it wasn't stopping, it wasn't doing anything and it just kept speeding up." The story was picked up by major national media and ricocheted around the Internet.

According to Sikes, he was unable to shift into neutral, power down the car, or apply the parking brake—but but he did manage to call 911. Whle Sikes was on the call, which lasted 23 minutes, a California Highway Patrolman raced to the side of the speeding car. The patrolman used a loudspeaker to advise Sikes to apply the parking brake and foot brake simultaneously, and thereby successfully bring the car to a stop. There are conflicting reports about whether or not Sikes tried to put the Prius into neutral during the early part of the incident.

Runaway News Reports

A local television news report misreported that the patrolman used “his own police cruiser as a brake.” CNN reported that the main “claimed that he almost flew over a hill at more than 90 miles per hour in his Prius.”

There were other mistakes in national media coverage, including the report that the Sikes incident caused Toyota to issue a new recall for 2004 – 2009 Toyota Priuses. Those vehicles were included in a late 2009 voluntary safety recall—related to accelerator pedals that could be trapped by floor mats. There have been reports that some Toyota vehicles that received service in a separate recall are still experiencing problems, but second-generation Priuses, such as Sikes’s, have not yet been called into dealerships. Nonetheless, Sikes claims that he was turned away from a Toyota dealership when he tried to get the Prius serviced as part of a recall.

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Lexus CT 200h

Toyota officials last week confirmed that the Lexus CT 200h, a premium hybrid hatchback, is coming to the United States, according to a report in Automotive News. The Lexus CT 200h would be Lexus’s first compact car, and the first compact hybrid sold by Toyota in the US.

The car was unveiled at the Geneva Motor Show last week, but until recently the company insisted that the compact hybrid would only be sold in Europe. According to Automotive News, Lexus executives pleaded with Japan to bring to the car to the US—partly in hopes that the smaller Lexus would appeal to a younger demographic. "When the all-new Lexus CT 200h enters the market it will be the only hybrid vehicle in the emerging premium compact segment," said Mark Templin, Lexus Division group vice president and general manager.

The Lexus CT 200h will make its US debut at the 2010 New York Auto Show later this month. Production begins in late 2010. The car could go on sale in the US sometime in 2011.

Small Luxury Compact Hybrid Hatchback

The recipe for the CT 200h is to place a Prius-type hybrid system—featuring a 1.8-liter gas engine with variable valve timing, and energy storage with a nickel-metal hydride battery pack—into small relatively affordable premium compact car. Lexus said the CT 200h will ride on a new front-wheel-drive platform with a MacPherson strut front suspension and double wishbones at the rear.

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Plug-in Hybrid and Electric Car Incentives

• Federal Tax Credits for PHEVs and EVs
• Federal Tax Credits for Hybrids and Clean Diesels
• Region by Region Incentives for All Electric-Drive Vehicles

In a few weeks, Ford will become the third auto company to see federal incentives for its hybrid gas-electric cars completely vanish. Tax credits for Honda hybrids bit the dust at the beginning of last year, and Toyota hybrid credits completely phased out in late 2007.

The clean vehicle incentives instated in 2005 provided tax credits, as much as $3,400, for 60,000 buyers per each automaker before a phase-out period of 16 months. Ford reached the 60,000 hybrid mark before April 1, 2009—so beginning on April 1, 2010, there are zero tax credits for a Ford Fusion Hybrid or Ford Escape Hybrid. Tax credits remain for hybrids and clean diesel vehicles from General Motors, Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW—but with the exception of the VW Jetta TDI, these are low volume vehicles.

Mission Accomplished or Not?

With hybrids remaining below 3 percent of the new car market, green car analysts and advocates are wondering if the hybrid tax credits have vanished too soon. After a decade in the market, hybrids have become more commonplace and therefore, with tax credits and other incentives, could reach a much larger part of the mainstream market. Incentives could encourage automakers and consumers to put millions of high-mpg low-emission hybrids on the road—the original goal of the tax credits.

Instead, legislators have jumped to the next technology breakthrough: tax credits for plug-in hybrids and electric cars. A combination of local and national credits—up to $7,500 at the federal level, plus a $2,000 credit for charging equipment installation, plus state-based incentives— represent so far the largest bundle of incentives for private purchasers of green electric-drive vehicles.

Yet, these grid-enabled vehicles are not yet available—and when they arrive in later 2010, they will be expensive (even with tax credits) and available in limited supply. This is a good argument for generous tax credits to jumpstart the market. However, the first wave of buyers of plug-in cars will be highly motivated early adopters—a group likely to buy regardless with or without large tax credits. Meanwhile, there won’t be an incentive for some mainstream buyers who need a slight nudge to go hybrid.

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Licking Heights Local School District received $54,418 to retrofit 31 school buses under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The retrofits will reduce diesel exhaust inhaled by children, who are most susceptible to air pollution that can cause asthma and bronchitis among other ailments. Click here to read the full article “Licking Heights receives $54K for school [...]

Five schools in the Akron, Ohio area will get federal stimulus money to retrofit diesel-powered school buses. Together, the districts will install anti-pollution equipment on 67 buses. In total, the Ohio EPA awarded $1.87 million to 31 schools to clean up 528 school buses. Click here to read the full article “Area schools get money [...]

The head of the Environmental Protection Agency, Lisa P. Jackson, announced more than $16 million in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funding will go to reducing diesel emissions in Washington State. The individual grants will go towards retrofitting engines with diesel oxidation catalysts, among other projects to clean the air. Click here to read the full article [...]